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• The Monsoon rainfall in 2025 over
Punjab, Gilgit Baltistan, Balochistan and Sindh were above average.
• Monsoon season 2025 national mean
temperature of 30.39 °C, for Pakistan, as a whole, was 0.5 °C warmer
than average and ranked 9th highest mean temperature in past 64
years (the record is 30.63 °C in 2019).
• The heaviest one-day rainfall of 363.5
mm occurred at Sialkot cant (Punjab) on 27th August 2025. The same station observed the wettest
month with a total of 730.8 mm in August-2024 and the wettest season with a
total of 1118.5 mm rainfall.
• The hottest day of the season was
observed at Chilas on 5th July 2025 (Gilgit-Baltistan) recorded
a maximum temperature of 48.5 °C. Whereas the stations Dalbandin &
Nokkundi recorded the warmest month temperature with highest mean monthly
maximum temperature of 44.5 °C.
• The coldest night temperature (7.0 °C)
of the season was recorded at Malam Jabba (Khyber Phaktunkhwa) on 26th
September 2025. Whereas, the station Skardu (GB) recorded the coolest
month’s temperature with lowest mean monthly minimum temperature of 11.3 °C
in September 2025. (Fig-1)
2. Introduction
Monsoon is a vital natural
source of fresh water that replenishes wells, aquifers, rivers, and stream
resources crucial for irrigation, domestic use, and hydroelectric power
generation. Timely and adequate monsoon rains are essential for
agriculture, livestock, sustaining river and stream flows, refilling
reservoirs, and recharging groundwater. A good monsoon not only supports
the growth of Kharif crops but also keeps the soil sufficiently moist,
which benefits the subsequent Rabi crops. As a result, overall agricultural
productivity and exports receive a boost, contributing to economic growth.
However, excessive rainfall such as the devastating monsoon Pakistan
experienced in past 2022 and same in 2025 can lead to widespread
destruction, including floods, infrastructure damage, and displacement.
Conversely, deficient monsoon rains can trigger drought-like conditions,
leading to food insecurity, dry vegetation, falling water levels in lakes
and reservoirs, land subsidence, seawater intrusion, and damage to ecosystems.
3. Monsoon 2025
This
year, the monsoon season set in Pakistan on June 26, 2025, four days
earlier than its usual start date of July 1st. However, keeping
in view of the normal Monsoon climatology of this region, this report
focused on July, August September only. July 2025 experienced
slightly above average rainfall, however Flash Flood situations seen in
Kashmir, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, and low-lying areas of Balochistan and
Sindh. In August 2025, it exhibited above average rainfall and
caused extremely high-level floods in Punjab and GLOF situation along with
flash floods occurred in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan &
Kashmir. September 2025 can be recognized as largely above average
rainfall. In this month, a monsoon low developed over Bay of Bengal on 4th,
converted into a well-marked low on next day then further intensified into
a depression over southwest Rajasthan (India) on 7th, became
more strengthened into deep depression, moved towards Southeast Sindh and
adjoining Indian Rajasthan on 8th, weakened into a depression
over southern Sindh then weakened into a low pressure over Balochistan
Coast and finally became less marked on 12th. This formation of
deep depression, crossing Sindh and effecting Balochistan Coast was a rare
phenomenon of its kind in the month of September. Resultant widespread
Rain/Thunderstorms with heavy to extremely heavy falls in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, Gilgit- Baltistan, Kashmir, Sindh and moderate to
heavy rainfall occurred in Balochistan during the month.
To sum
it up, Pakistan experienced an above-average rainfall during the entire
monsoon season with a +23% deviation from the normal. On a regional scale,
Punjab with 310.1 mm (+34%), Gilgit-Baltistan with 51.9mm (+31%),
Balochistan with 74.8mm (+28%) and Sindh with 168.8 mm (+26%) all recorded
above- average rainfall. In contrast with the Azad Jammu and Kashmir
(AJ&K) with 407.8mm (+5%) and Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa (KP) with 260.7mm (+2%) received near-average rainfall. (Fig. 2a & Table-1). Fig. 2b shows the spatial
distribution seasonal (JAS) rainfall and Fig-3 gives the cumulative monsoon rains of during this season.
4. The Climate drivers and
Synoptic Features during Monsoon 2025:
·
The Niño
Indices with a slightly negative tilt remained in neutral phase during the
JAS monsoon season. i.e. neither La Niña nor El Niño with
sea surface temperatures (SST) anomaly around ‑0.37°C over the
central equatorial Pacific Ocean.
·
Maddan-Julian
Oscillation (MJO) being in phases 2,3 over the Indian Ocean during 13-23
August caused widespread rainfall in Sindh and adjoining Balochistan and also during first 10 days of September 2025 led to
largely above-average rainfall across Pakistan.
·
Indian Ocean Dipole
(IOD) changed into negative phase in August and September.
·
The monsoon axis remained
northward from its mean position during July caused widespread heavy to
very heavy rainfall and (extremely heavy at few places) occurred in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, Punjab and at scattered places in
Balochistan & Sindh during first half of the month. During mid of
August, the Monsoon axis was shifted toward south of its normal position
resultant widespread rainfall in Sindh and adjoining Balochistan. Whereas
in September the Monsoon axis shifted again toward south during first ten
days of the month caused widespread heavy rainfall in Sindh and adjoining
Balochistan.
·
Three low-pressure areas (LPAs) moved over Pakistan
during July-2025 with heat-low (average pressure 991 hPa) persisted over
Northwest Balochistan/West Balochistan. During August-2025, Two LPAs moved
over the country with heat-low (average pressure 995 hPa) persisted over
Northwest Balochistan. Whereas A well-marked LPA approached in September became a deep depression (average
pressure value 1000.2 hPa). The tracks of LPAs are depicted in Fig‑4.
These factors played a
significant role in final shape up of the Monsoon 2025.
July 2025:
·
Monsoon currents
converged over the country at regular intervals (1-2, 8-17, 18-20 and 25-31
of July) during the month pouring light to moderate rainfall spell (Fig-5).
·
National rainfall was above
average (+22.8%) across Pakistan.
·
Regions experienced more
or less a similar situation i.e. Punjab (+57.3%), GB (+52%) recorded largely
above-average rainfall, Balochistan (+32.5%) and AJ&K (+13.7%) an above
average rainfall and KP (+4%) recorded a near average rainfall. In
contrast, Sindh (-47.5%) was the only region to have a well below average rainfall
(Table-1).
·
Flash Flood situations
seen in Kashmir, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, and low-lying areas of
Balochistan and Sindh.
August 2025:
·
August saw the two
monsoon LPAs (18-27 and 28Aug-01Sep) with few widespread heavy to extremely
heavy falls (Fig. 6).
·
In contrast to July, however
slightly above-average rainfall was experienced in August with National
rainfall being +11%.
·
GB (+44%) has recorded well
above average rainfall, Balochistan (+24%) was above average, AJK and
Punjab (+11%) slightly above average, KP (+7%) and Sindh (+1%) recorded near
average rainfall (Table-1).
·
Heavy to very heavy
rainfall events in later half of the month caused extremely high-level
floods in Punjab and GLOF situation along with flash floods occurred in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan & Kashmir.
·
New record for heaviest
one-day rainfall was set at Sialkot Cant with 363.5 mm on 27th
August 2025.
September 2025:
·
September also saw three
rainy spells (1-4, 6-10 and 16-20) of heavy to extremely heavy intensity which rendered it largely above average
by +52% (Fig. 7).
·
Sindh (+315%) experienced
excessively above-average rainfall, Punjab (+25.1%), Balochistan (+23.7%) exhibited
above average rainfall, While AJ&K (-33.6%), GB (-21.7%) and KP (‑17.7%)
exhibited below average rainfall (Table-1).
·
The record-breaking wettest
month rainfall was recorded at Thatta 197.0 mm.
·
Whereas new record for
one day rainfall also recorded at Thatta 110.0 mm (10Sep2025), Ormara 30.0
mm (11Sep2025) and Gwadar 5.4 mm (11Sep2025).
These variations in rainfall are
indicative of the dynamic nature of the monsoon season in Pakistan.
5. Minimum and Maximum
Temperature Trends during Monsoon-2025:
The mean minimum temperature
anomalies (-1.0°C to +5.3°C) for the monsoon 2025 season were considerably
higher over the western Balochistan (Fig. 8). The mean maximum
temperature anomalies were in the range of ‑2.4°C to +2.8°C and found
higher western Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan. (Fig. 9).
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